Crystal Ball 11.1.2 Essentials
Course overview
This course enables you to perform spreadsheet risk analysis using Crystal Ball Standard Edition. On day one, you learn the basics of Monte Carlo simulation, tornado analysis, and steps to develop Crystal Ball models. A strong emphasis is placed on gaining insight from simulation results, and understanding the best ways to present findings to peers, management, or clients. Please note this course does not have a lab environment or practice exercises.
Course Duration
5 Days
Cost
Prerequisties
- Introductory understanding of Excel and competence with Windows operating systems
- Basic knowledge of probability and statistics
Course Content
Modeling and Simulation Overview
- Oracle’s Enterprise Performance Management System
- Model Basics
- Simulation Basics
- About Monte Carlo Simulations
- About Crystal Ball
- Model Development Process
Getting Started with Crystal Ball
- Setting Crystal Ball Start Preferences
- About the Welcome Dialog Box
- Basic Crystal Ball Terminology
- Crystal Ball Ribbon
- Additional Resources for Crystal Ball
Examining Probability Distributions
- About Probability Distributions
- Basic Distribution Statistics
- Viewing Distribution Types in the Distribution Gallery
- Properties of Crystal Ball Distributions
- Commonly Used Crystal Ball Distributions
Defining Assumptions
- About Assumptions
- Defining Data-Based Assumptions Through Distribution Fittings
- Defining Data-Based Assumptions with Custom Distributions
- Defining Expert-Based Assumptions
- Referencing Cells for Parameter Values
- Generated Names for Assumption Cells
- Best Practices for Defining Assumptions
Defining Forecasts, Running Simulations, and Analyzing Results
- Defining Forecasts
- Running Simulations
- Analyzing Forecast Charts
- Viewing Other Charts with Forecast Data
- Saving and Loading Forecast Results
- Editing Crystal Ball Data
Correlating Assumptions
- Importance of Correlating Assumptions
- Rank Correlation Method
- Crystal Ball Options for Correlating Assumptions
- Defining Correlations by Modifying Assumption Definitions
- Adjusting Correlation Coefficients During Simulations
- Best Practices for Correlating Assumptions
Creating Reports
- About Crystal Ball Reports
- Generating Reports
- Extracting Data to Excel
Determining Assumptions with Tornado and Spider Charts
- Considering Assumptions
- About Tornado and Spider Charts
- Tornado Charts Versus Sensitivity Charts
- Creating Tornado and Spider Charts
- Examining Tornado Charts
- Examining Spider Charts
Working with Multiple Assumptions
- Batch Fitting Probability Distributions
- Correlating Multiple Assumptions with Correlation Matrices
Setting Advanced Options for Assumptions
- Building Distributions with Alternate Parameters
- Truncating Assumption Distributions
- Creating Distribution Functions
- Publishing and Subscribing to Distributions
- Customizing the Distribution Gallery
Setting Advanced Options for Forecasts
- Automatically Extracting Forecast Statistics
- Adding Marker Lines to Forecast Charts
- Fitting Distributions to Forecast Charts
- Filtering Forecast Results
Working with Simulation Controls
- Setting Precision Control Preferences
- Setting Sampling Preferences
- Setting Run Mode Preferences
- Selecting Options for Simulation Statistics
Optimizing Decisions with OptQuest
- About Optimization
- About OptQuest
- Optimizing Decision Variables
- Analyzing OptQuest Results
- OptQuest Performance Best Practices
- Performing Efficient Frontier Analysis
Forecasting with Predictor
- About Crystal Ball Predictor
- Creating Time Series Forecasts
- Working with Predictor Results
- Performing Linear Regressions
- Predictor Integration with Planning and Essbase